Superstars represent incredible value.
Young superstars, however, offer an even more exceptional bargain.
Allow me to elaborate.
Each day, a baseball team must fill 10 positions (now including the designated hitter). The objective, therefore, is to extract the utmost value from those spots.
Now, let’s consider value. For now, let’s set money aside and focus on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) (and not delve into its specifics; WAR is an imperfect metric but generally serves its purpose). An average player typically contributes around 2.0 WAR over a full season. That’s average. Meaning, roughly half of all players fail to reach that mark in a full season, while the other half surpass it. Successful teams typically boast more above-average players than losing teams. The more value packed into each position, the greater the likelihood of achieving a winning record.
Here’s where superstars come into play. Take Elly De La Cruz, for instance, and the urgent need for the Cincinnati Reds to secure his services long-term. Currently, he boasts 4.4 WAR (per FanGraphs) for the season, ranking second in the National League and sixth in all of baseball. He’s on pace to achieve 7.3 WAR by season’s end, which would surpass any single season by a Reds shortstop, including the legendary Barry Larkin.
7 WAR from a single position is monumental. A team with a 7 WAR player theoretically could field five 1.0 WAR players and still expect to contend around .500. If you can achieve average performance elsewhere, you’re in playoff contention.
Elly De La Cruz is only 22 years old, and every facet of his game has improved from last year. He’s a bona fide superstar with elite offensive numbers across the league, particularly at shortstop. His defensive capabilities also place him in favorable territory, despite his inevitable learning curve as a young shortstop.
Now, let’s address the financial aspect.
De La Cruz is projected to reach free agency at 28. Currently, the Reds have an opportunity to secure him, similar to how the Atlanta Braves did with Ronald Acuna Jr. and other teams with their young stars. The bargain lies in guaranteeing a player significant earnings while the team benefits from cost-effective years of free agency.
The Reds must prioritize locking De La Cruz down.
While some may aspire for the Reds to emulate the Rays’ frugality, even the Rays’ model has become widely understood across baseball. Innovation eventually spreads, making it improbable to consistently win on a shoestring budget without extraordinary fortune. However, prudent spending can secure playoff spots and expand playoff opportunities. Securing a superstar shortstop at a discount (if feasible) is a crucial step in achieving this, albeit requiring a reasonable financial commitment.
Given the current financial landscape of Major League Baseball, with escalating salaries and increasing franchise valuations, any team aspiring to contend must secure talents like Elly De La Cruz. The Reds made a similar move with Joey Votto years ago, which proved to be wise despite other organizational shortcomings.
Elly De La Cruz was a lottery win for the Reds. Allowing him to depart in a few years in hopes of another lucky find would not reflect a franchise genuinely committed to winning.
