Just like the previous offseasons, Alex Anthopoulos is once again faced with decisions about the shortstop position. Two years ago, he let Dansby Swanson go after a standout season, resulting in a $177 million contract with the Cubs.
In retrospect, that deal appeared excessive then and still does now, as Swanson has yet to show the consistency to justify such a high price tag. The Braves made a smart choice by moving on, and replacing him with Orlando Arcia initially seemed like a brilliant move; Arcia had a breakout year, earning his first All-Star selection while earning less than 10% of Swanson’s salary.
However, Arcia’s performance dropped significantly in the latter half of that season, and his 2024 performance has mirrored his career averages—a solid defender but an underwhelming hitter, better suited as a backup. The Braves need to strengthen this position in the offseason, but options in free agency are limited.
The primary target for teams seeking a shortstop is Willy Adames. The 29-year-old just completed one of his best seasons with the Brewers, hitting a career-high 32 home runs with a .794 OPS, contributing significantly to Milwaukee’s NL Central title.
However, acquiring Adames won’t be cheap. He’s likely to attract plenty of interest and could command a contract even larger than Swanson’s. Typically, these are not the types of bidding wars that Anthopoulos excels in, but Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller suggests that this year might be different, with the Braves poised to make a significant move to fill this major lineup gap.
Initially, Arcia seemed like a valuable solution after Swanson’s departure. Although he faced a wrist injury early in 2023, he excelled in his first 54 games, hitting .341 and earning an All-Star spot. Unfortunately, he posted a .652 OPS for the remainder of that season and struggled further this year, with a .625 OPS despite appearing in 244 of 249 games.
The Braves are happy to retain Arcia as a versatile backup for two more years at a combined cost of $4 million, but they will be strong contenders for Adames.
Other teams, like the Dodgers and possibly the Blue Jays, are also expected to pursue Adames, especially if they’re preparing for Bo Bichette’s potential departure next year. Atlanta seems likely to engage in one of the more significant contracts outside of Juan Soto in this free agency period.
Anthopoulos has indicated that the Braves’ payroll will increase this offseason, but it may not be sufficient to secure Adames for around $150-200 million. This is particularly doubtful given that recent high-value shortstop contracts have not worked out well for the teams involved.
Looking back to when Swanson was a free agent alongside Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, Swanson signed for $177 million but hasn’t lived up to it. Bogaerts received $280 million but has underperformed with the Padres. Turner has been the most productive, but even he hasn’t justified his $300 million deal with the Phillies, and Correa has faced his share of injuries and inconsistencies.
I doubt any of these teams would make those deals again, and I would argue that all four players entered free agency in a stronger position than Willy Adames. While Adames may still have his best years ahead, I highly doubt the Braves will be willing to invest in that possibility.
