Will he accept? Or will the Reds land draft pick compensation when he signs elsewhere?
On Monday afternoon, the Cincinnati Reds made a bold move typically associated with larger-budget teams in Major League Baseball by extending a qualifying offer of over $21 million to pitcher Nick Martinez. This decision comes after Martinez opted out of his previous $12 million contract last week.
Gordon Wittenmyer from The Enquirer provided the details, indicating that Nick Martinez has 15 days to decide whether to accept or decline the qualifying offer. If he chooses to reject it, he will become a free agent.
I believe the Reds have ventured into territory typically occupied by the larger-spending MLB teams, not because Nick Martinez, who excelled in a versatile role for the Reds in 2024, isn’t deserving of the money. In fact, he is exactly the type of pitcher who merits that level of investment, particularly on a one-year deal if he decides to accept. The aspect I’m referring to isn’t about the financial commitment itself but rather the risk involved with him potentially accepting the offer.
While extending the qualifying offer clearly shows the Reds’ desire to retain Nick Martinez, it’s important to note that the team typically prefers to manage their risk by spreading contracts over multiple years to avoid one player consuming a large portion of their annual budget. The front office would likely acknowledge that Martinez made the right choice in opting out of a contract that would have paid him $12 million for 2025. However, it’s reasonable to assume that in the contract negotiations mentioned by Wittenmyer, the Reds were probably discussing annual salaries that were lower than the $21 million he would receive by accepting the qualifying offer.
We’ll see if Martinez, who will turn 35 next August, is willing to take a chance on himself by declining the qualifying offer and entering free agency. If he does, any team that signs him will face the QO penalty, which involves the loss of a draft pick depending on whether they are a revenue-sharing contributor or recipient. Meanwhile, the Reds could potentially receive a compensation pick after the first round in next summer’s draft if a team commits to a contract worth more than $50 million guaranteed for Martinez. If he signs for less than that, the Reds would receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B.
The “risk” I’m referring to is that, despite Martinez’s successes in 2024, he is one of the potential qualifying offer recipients who may not be guaranteed to decline it. Players like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Pete Alonso will likely turn down their offers without hesitation, given the strong market that will minimize any concerns about the draft-pick penalty associated with signing them. In contrast, Martinez faces a tougher decision due to his age, the absence of a clearly defined role, and a relatively brief track record of success. This uncertainty is compounded by the fact that some teams might prefer him as a relief pitcher rather than as a starter.
That’s exactly why I believe he’s likely to accept the qualifying offer from the Reds and return for the 2025 season. While the Reds may end up spending a few million more on him than they would prefer in this situation, it’s evident that they value him and his fit within the team enough to take that risk.
