There’s a general consensus that the Cincinnati Reds’ biggest need right now is a strong bat in the outfield. While I agree they could use an outfielder with hitting power, I don’t think this is their most urgent priority.
What the Reds truly need is the absolute best hitter they can acquire. Let me explain why.
Many of us (myself included) often view the less defensively demanding positions as spots where you can place a player who’s been pushed out of their “natural” position. To some extent, that’s accurate. However, there’s a key condition: the player must hit well enough to justify being there.
There are two positions primarily focused on offensive production: Designated Hitter and First Base. Last year, Reds batters at Designated Hitter posted a -3.0 fWAR, the worst in baseball. At first base, they generated -1.8 fWAR, also the worst in the league.
The outfield and third base were also underperforming, but these two positions were especially dire. Why? Because the players placed there simply didn’t hit. (As a side note, when checking this data, I recommend using “Positional Split” on FanGraphs rather than “Primary Position,” as it provides more accurate data for the specific position you’re interested in.)
The Reds’ OPS at first base last year was .641, while the league average was .736. At DH, the Reds’ OPS was a dismal .599 (yikes), compared to the league’s .742. And keep in mind, these numbers aren’t even park-adjusted.
It was a major issue. No contending team can afford such significant black holes in the lineup at those two spots. Now, let’s take a look at the six positions where the Reds absolutely need to improve if they want to be competitive:
- DH: -3.0 WAR, Last
- First Base: -1.8 WAR, Last
- Third Base: -1.0, 29th
- Right Field: 0.7, 23rd
- Left Field: -0.1, 23rd
- Center Field: 0.8 26th
Here’s the list of players who are at least candidates to factor into those spots this year:
- Spencer Steer
- Jonathan India
- TJ Friedl
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand
- Jeimer Candelario
- Noelvi Marte
- Jake Fraley
- Will Benson
With the lone exception of India, all of these players share one common trait: they were good in 2023 but struggled in 2024. Some, like Steer, were just the typical kind of bad that a team can probably manage. Others, like Marte and Benson, were disastrously bad.
The reason people are calling for an outfielder is that the corner infield positions are filled with potential, but not with results. Marte was a disaster this year, and Encarnacion-Strand had a rough stretch before getting injured—on his wrist, an injury that often impacts power. Neither of them has career numbers as strong as Will Benson’s. No, I’m not kidding. You can look it up.
In their short careers, Steer, India, and Friedl have all been above-average hitters (based on their career numbers). They have the kind of offensive production that works in the outfield. But no one on this list—*no one*—has the kind of numbers you’d want from a first baseman or designated hitter. And that’s exactly what Cincinnati needs.
Candelario loses his value the moment he plays anywhere other than third base. Marte has never been viewed as having enough bat to play first base or DH, as far as I know. And we may have overrated Encarnacion-Strand. Look back at his 2023 numbers—yes, there was a hot streak, but if 2023 represents his ceiling, then he’s not cut out to be a starting first baseman or DH.
The Reds need to add multiple bats. *Multiple*. Relying on the current group to provide significant value at both first base and DH is a risky move. You might get one of those spots covered if you’re lucky, but don’t count on both being filled by players who haven’t proven they can handle it.
