Carson Kelly, a free agent with the Texas Rangers, spent much of the 2024 season working to regain his form. The talented defensive catcher and former second-round draft pick has struggled with a series of injuries over the past three years.
Last season, he was engaged in a battle with Jonah Heim for the starting catcher role on the Rangers’ roster. Despite his recent challenges, Kelly remains one of the top catchers available in the MLB free-agent market this offseason.
Carson Kelly was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals as the 86th pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. After spending four years advancing through the Cardinals’ farm system, he made his major league debut in 2016.
Kelly’s breakout season came in 2019, his first full year with the Arizona Diamondbacks. That year, he showcased his power, hitting .245 with a .348 on-base percentage, .478 slugging, 18 home runs, and 47 RBIs in 111 games. He followed that up with another solid season in 2021, hitting 13 home runs and driving in 46 RBIs with a .754 OPS over 98 games.
However, injuries have significantly hindered Kelly’s progress. A toe fracture sidelined him in May 2021, and after a brief return, he suffered a right wrist fracture. Following a strong second half in 2021, Kelly was placed on the injured list again in May 2022 with a left oblique strain. Though he returned in June, he struggled to regain his hitting form for the rest of the season.
Kelly was hitting .320 with a .934 OPS in 10 spring training games in 2023 when he was hit on the right forearm by a pitch from Chicago White Sox pitcher Gregory Santos on March 20, resulting in a fractured forearm. The Diamondbacks released Kelly on August 15, 2023.
Carson Kelly currently holds a 1.9 WAR in Major League Baseball. Standing 6-foot-2 and weighing 210 pounds, the catcher has demonstrated his power during healthier stretches of his career. In 2024, Kelly posted an OPS of .687, slightly above his career average of .680. This marked an improvement compared to his injury-riddled seasons of 2022 and 2023, where he posted OPS numbers of .616 and .565, respectively.
Defensively, Carson Kelly ranks well above average in both Fielding Run Value and Caught Stealing Above Average, according to Baseball Savant. He also demonstrates average Batting Run Value, although his playing time has been limited, so he doesn’t officially qualify in that category.
In terms of market value, Kelly is currently estimated to be worth $2.2 million per year, as per Spotrac.com. This is slightly higher than the $1.17 million he earned with the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers in 2024. His market value is likely lower than it might have been, considering the injuries that have impacted his recent seasons.
At 30 years old, Kelly compares favorably to other catchers at a similar level. Free agent Luke Maile of the Cincinnati Reds, also 30, has a market value of $1.8 million, despite putting up lower numbers than Kelly. New York Yankees catcher José Trevino, also 30, is valued at $6 million, despite struggling offensively. Atlanta Braves catcher Victor Caratini, 31, is similar to Kelly in both offensive and defensive abilities, and is set to earn $6 million for the Braves in 2025.
Carson Kelly’s recent struggles have certainly impacted his salary and roster placement, but he’s still ranked fifth among free-agent catchers by MLB, with a 1.9 WAR in 2023, matching that of Victor Caratini.
One team that could be a strong suitor for Kelly is the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs had acquired Christian Bethancourt mid-season, but he became a free agent after the regular season ended in September, leaving the team with only 25-year-old Miguel Amaya at catcher.
For a big-market team like the Cubs, Kelly would be an excellent fit in 2025. His defensive skills would bolster their lineup, and he could provide valuable support to Amaya as he continues to develop at the position.
