The MLB offseason has started off slowly, but it’s expected to pick up momentum in the near future.
As we await the offseason action to ramp up, we turned to a panel of experts to offer predictions. Which teams are likely to be most active once free agency and trades begin? Which players are poised to secure big contracts, and where might stars like Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Corbin Burnes end up?
Here’s a look at how 18 MLB team executives and baseball insiders responded to those questions and more. (Note: Respondents were allowed to skip any questions, so not all answers reflect the full 18 votes.)
Will Juan Soto get more than $600 million, and who will give it to him?
Survey says: $600 million? Yes 11, no 7
Who will sign him? Yankees 12, Mets 4, Blue Jays 2
More of our panelists agreed on where Juan Soto will sign than on the amount of money he’ll receive. A common sentiment among our respondents was that the Yankees will meet—or nearly meet—any offer brought to them by agent Scott Boras to keep Soto in New York. The prevailing message from our insiders was clear: The Yankees don’t let stars leave; that’s something that happens with other teams.
“Do you think George Steinbrenner would let one of the best players in the world go?” asked one executive from a smaller market. “I know the Dodgers are the new Yankees, but he’s wearing pinstripes now.”
Some executives highlighted the on-field fit that contributed to the Yankees’ World Series push. New York had long sought a left-handed hitter to balance their offense, and Soto has thrived in that role. Letting him go now would essentially mean rebuilding that critical piece of their lineup.
“I believe Brian Cashman will demonstrate to ownership just how valuable he is to their lineup,” another executive commented.
One voter who selected the Mets believes that any amount of money Steve Cohen spends to bring Soto across New York would be justified, given his rare blend of youth and talent.
“Cohen spent on [Justin] Verlander and [Max] Scherzer at the wrong stage of their careers,” he said. “[Francisco] Lindor is proof that signing a big star can pay off. And Scott will sell him on that, especially considering Soto’s age (26).”
Where will the top three free agent aces with MLB experience sign?
Survey says: Corbin Burnes: Mets 7, Red Sox 2, Orioles 2, Dodgers 2, Rangers 1, Cubs 1, Giants 1
Blake Snell: Giants 7, Phillies 4, Blue Jays 2, Reds 1, Mets 1, Red Sox 1
Max Fried: Mets 4, Dodgers 2, Giants 2, Cubs 2, Braves 2, Red Sox 2, Reds 1, Rangers 1, Orioles 1
As anticipated, there was a wide range of responses to a question that asked our panel to predict landing spots for the top three veteran pitchers in free agency, requiring them to play a bit of free agency “dominoes.”
One thing was clear, though: Our insiders expect the Mets to be a major player in the market for big free-agent pitchers this winter. With New York’s resources, the panel anticipates the Mets will secure at least one of the top three available.
One executive remarked, “They could lose all three of their starters who played a key role in the playoffs. Why not aim to improve?”
The voter who selected Burnes for the Cubs believed a reunion with Craig Counsell was a logical move, but Chicago has signaled that it won’t be diving into that part of the free agent market.
The Giants were heavy favorites to retain Blake Snell after he opted out of his deal in San Francisco because of their strong relationship with him, the team’s need for an elite starting pitcher, and the familiarity he had with their organization and pitching staff. Additionally, the Giants’ willingness to offer a competitive contract and their need for a top-tier arm likely made them a frontrunner.
One executive commented, “He really found his rhythm on the West Coast. I don’t see him moving on.”
