The Buffalo Bills’ hopes of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed were dashed when the Kansas City Chiefs triumphed over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. However, NFL MVP frontrunner Josh Allen and the team can still secure the No. 2 seed with a victory against the New York Jets on Sunday.
Buffalo’s roster has been dealing with significant injuries since training camp, and that remains the case as they approach the second-to-last game of the regular season. This week’s injury report lists 16 players, making up 30.2 percent of the team’s 53-man roster. As a result, the opportunity to rest players in Week 18 could be extremely beneficial.
Although New York has been eliminated from playoff contention, their final two games still hold significance. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who doesn’t seem ready to retire, may need to use these games as an opportunity to showcase his skills for another team, as the Jets are likely to part ways with him following a disappointing season.
The Bills and Jets are set to kick off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Highmark Stadium, with CBS providing the television broadcast.
Jets-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 17)
X-Factors
Jets: WR Garrett Wilson
Wilson has expressed frustration with his reduced role in the offense. The third-year wide receiver seemed to direct his frustration at Rodgers for not receiving more targets, following the team’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week. He clarified that the issue wasn’t with passing game coordinator Todd Downing.
“I’d like to be involved, love to make an impact on the game, but people see it differently,” Wilson told reporters. “That’s out of my control.”
Wilson is having a strong season, with 90 receptions for 987 yards and six touchdowns. However, his involvement has decreased since the Jets traded for Davante Adams, a longtime friend of Rodgers, in a midseason move.
Adams is currently dealing with a hip injury, which could give Wilson the chance to reclaim his role as the clear No. 1 option on Sunday. Wilson is a game-changing player who could pose significant challenges for a Buffalo secondary that has been struggling recently, particularly when he receives double-digit targets.
The Jets faced numerous issues this season, making it unlikely that giving Wilson a bigger role would have drastically altered their outcomes. However, prioritizing the aerial attack around Adams instead of one of the league’s rising stars like Wilson didn’t help matters.
Bills: LB Matt Milano
Matt Milano made his return in early December after being sidelined for 14 months. He missed the end of last season due to a leg injury and then sustained a bicep injury during this year’s training camp. These injuries are part of a history of setbacks in Milano’s career, but his return provides a significant boost to the Bills’ defense.
The 30-year-old New York native was understandably rusty in his first three games back. He then sustained a groin injury that kept him out last week. Milano is expected to return for the game against the Jets, but with limited time remaining in the regular season, he faces a crucial opportunity to prove he’s ready to make a significant impact in the playoffs.
It’s a tricky situation for the Bills, as they typically use only two linebackers in their base defense. Terrel Bernard is firmly locked into one starting spot, while Dorian Williams has been filling in next to him. Williams has had a solid, though unspectacular, season, making the situation more complex as Milano works to regain his form.
If Milano doesn’t show significant improvement in the final two games, Buffalo could consider shifting back to Williams as the playoff starter. It’s a difficult decision, given Milano’s All-Pro pedigree and his potential to be a dynamic playmaker. However, his current form is far from that level, making it a tough call for the Bills to balance experience with the need for effective performance heading into the playoffs.
Looking ahead, Milano could become a cap casualty in the offseason due to the toll his injuries have taken over time. He’s had a stellar career with the Bills, so it would be disappointing if his tenure ended with being benched and eventually released. However, Buffalo may not have much of a choice if the injuries continue to limit his performance and if the team needs to free up cap space.
Key Matchup
Jets DE Will McDonald IV vs. Bills OT Spencer Brown
McDonald needs to be a game-changer off the edge if the Jets hope to pull off an upset. After a disappointing rookie season, the 2023 first-round pick has had a standout year in 2024, recording a team-high 10 sacks in 15 games. His performance will be crucial for New York’s defense in their bid for an upset victory.
The defensive end recorded two tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble in New York’s first matchup with Buffalo, a close 23-20 loss. Applying pressure off the edge is critical each week, but the key to defeating the Bills lies in pressuring Josh Allen while preventing him from escaping the pocket. Keeping Allen contained will be essential for the Jets to have a chance at victory.
At the very least, McDonald has established himself as a crucial building block for the Jets’ future defense. His strong performance in 2024 demonstrates his potential to be a key piece moving forward.
Brown is having his most well-rounded season as a professional. He has earned a 78.2 run-blocking grade and a 75.2 pass-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus. His 72.4 overall grade ranks 35th out of the league’s 135 eligible tackles, highlighting his strong performance this season.
Penalties are the main factor behind Brown’s overall grade being lower than his blocking grades. The right tackle has been flagged 15 times in 14 games, with 12 of those penalties being accepted, costing the offense 95 yards. This is an area that must be addressed if the team hopes to perform well in the postseason.
For now, Brown must focus on keeping McDonald in check, as the Bills cannot afford to have an already banged-up Josh Allen taking any additional hits this week. Protecting Allen will be crucial to ensuring the offense can function at its best.
Final Score Prediction: 28-21 Bills
Although it’s not getting much attention, this is a crucial game for the Bills. Securing the No. 2 seed would guarantee home-field advantage through the playoffs, up until a potential AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs. More importantly, a win would give Buffalo the opportunity to rest its starters in Week 18, helping preserve key players for the postseason.
The Bills have Super Bowl potential, but the AFC is packed with strong contenders. It’s crucial for Buffalo to get close to full strength as the postseason approaches, particularly since the secondary—once a strength for most of the year—has been severely impacted by injuries lately.
Additionally, this week’s game could be Allen’s last opportunity to make a strong MVP case. He had been pulling away in the race for a while, but Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens is making a late push and will be battling for the AFC North title next week, intensifying the competition for the award.
The Bills would love a convincing, multi-score victory for several reasons. Normally, that would be a near certainty against a 4-11 opponent more focused on draft position than winning games at this point in the season. However, that’s not the case against an offense filled with playmakers and a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, who has plenty to prove as the season winds down.
This means the Bills could be in a tight game well into the fourth quarter. While that bodes well for Allen’s chances to have a strong performance and strengthen his MVP case, it also lowers the likelihood of being able to rest starters. Ultimately, Buffalo should find a way to secure the win, but don’t be surprised if it comes down to the final possession.
