Just like the last couple of offseasons, Alex Anthopoulos will be mulling over what to do at shortstop. Two years ago, he decided to let Dansby Swanson walk, who was coming off a career year and signed a $177 million contract with the Cubs.
Hindsight is always clear, but that deal seemed like an overpay at the time and still does now. Swanson never showed the kind of consistency to justify nearly $200 million. The Braves made a smart choice in moving on, and replacing him with Orlando Arcia initially looked brilliant for about six months. While earning less than 10% of Swanson’s salary, Arcia had a breakout year, earning his first All-Star selection.
However, his performance in the second half of the season was disappointing, and his 2024 season resembled his career average—an average fielder with a subpar bat, better suited as a backup infielder. The Braves need to make upgrades this offseason, but options in free agency are limited.
The top target for any team needing a shortstop is Willy Adames. The 29-year-old is coming off a stellar season with the Brewers, hitting a career-high 32 home runs and posting a .794 OPS, contributing to Milwaukee’s NL Central title.
However, landing Adames won’t be easy. He’ll have many interested teams and may seek a contract even larger than Swanson’s. Typically, Alex Anthopoulos doesn’t engage in high-stakes bidding wars, but Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller suggests that this offseason could be different, predicting the Braves will make a significant move to address their biggest lineup need.
Orlando Arcia was initially a godsend in the aftermath of not re-signing Dansby Swanson. He missed a few weeks early in the 2023 campaign with a microfracture in his wrist, but he hit .341 through his first 54 games played, ultimately landing on the All-Star roster. But he had a .652 OPS the rest of the way before a .625 OPS this year, struggling to produce while playing in 244 of a possible 249 games.
Atlanta will very happily keep Arcia around as a versatile backup for two more years at a combined cost of $4M, but they’re going to be at the top of the list of teams bidding for Willy Adames’ services.
The Dodgers also figure to be in the mix for Adames. Possibly the Blue Jays, too, if they’re preemptively preparing for Bo Bichette to walk a year from now. But we’ll take Atlanta for what will be one of the bigger non-Soto contracts in this year’s free agency cycle.
Alex Anthopoulos has indicated that the Braves’ payroll is set to increase this offseason, but can it really stretch to sign Willy Adames for around $150-200 million? That seems unlikely for several reasons, especially since recent big contracts for shortstops haven’t worked out well for the team.
Let’s look back a couple of years when Dansby Swanson was a free agent alongside Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. Swanson signed for $177 million but hasn’t lived up to that deal. Bogaerts got $280 million and has struggled with the Padres. Turner has performed the best among them, but he hasn’t justified the $300 million contract he signed in Philadelphia, and Correa has faced injuries and inconsistencies.
I doubt any of these teams would make those deals again, and I would argue that all four players entered free agency in a stronger position than Willy Adames. That’s not to imply Adames isn’t a valuable player, but…
