Since Terry Francona was appointed as the new manager of the Cincinnati Reds, several updates have come from the front office. Players such as Jonathan India, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer may be changing positions, Noelvi Marte is set to play winter ball in the Dominican Republic, Elly De La Cruz will remain in his current role and not shift to the outfield, and the budget for 2025 is still undecided.
Amid this buzz, one player has been notably missing from discussions: Jeimer Candelario. After signing a three-year, $45 million contract last offseason, Candelario has not lived up to expectations. Although some of his difficulties stemmed from injuries, his contract already appears to be a liability as next season approaches.
However, the Reds might be able to trade Candelario (and his remaining $30 million salary) this offseason by taking on another unfavorable contract. Here are four potential contract swaps that could facilitate a trade for Candelario.
Trading bad contracts isn’t uncommon, but it often requires one of two approaches. A team accepting a burdensome contract might expect to offset the cost by receiving valuable prospects in return. This means the team shedding the bad contract also has to part with promising young talent.
Alternatively, teams can swap one bad contract for another. The Reds executed a similar deal in 2018, trading Homer Bailey to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Matt Kemp. At that time, Bailey was owed $25 million, while Kemp’s contract had an average annual value of $20 million, along with additional players and prospects included in the trade.
With that context, could the Reds find a partner willing to take on Candelario’s contract this offseason? If they can, they would likely need to absorb another poor deal in the process. Here are a few options worth considering:
Jordan Montgomery, LHP (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Jordan Montgomery’s 2024 season has been disappointing. After a lengthy stint on the free agent market, he signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks, which includes a $25 million option for 2025. Given recent comments from Diamondbacks ownership labeling his signing a major mistake, a contract swap involving Candelario could be mutually beneficial. The Reds could send Candelario to Arizona while acquiring Montgomery to strengthen their starting rotation. Although this trade would be costlier in 2025, it could free up $15 million for 2026.
Sonny Gray, RHP (St. Louis Cardinals)
This trade option is particularly appealing to many Reds fans and seems feasible. With the Cardinals restructuring their front office and focusing more on internal development, they might be open to trading Sonny Gray. His backloaded contract means the Reds would take on a significant salary, but trading Candelario (along with some mid-tier prospects) could facilitate the deal. Although trading within the NL Central is usually unpopular among Reds fans, acquiring a top-tier starter like Gray could justify the risk. However, it’s worth noting that Gray’s 2024 performance didn’t match his impressive 2023 season.
Lance McCullers Jr., RHP (Houston Astros)
This option carries significant risk. McCullers hasn’t pitched since 2022 and has $36 million remaining on his contract through 2026, following multiple injuries and a recent surgery. The Astros, aiming to offload his contract, may be motivated to make a deal after failing to reach the ALCS. While there’s considerable risk, McCullers had a solid record before his injury, and if medical evaluations are favorable, this trade could benefit both teams.
Kyle Freeland, LHP (Colorado Rockies)
Freeland signed a five-year, $64.5 million deal in 2022, with a vesting option for 2026 if he pitches 170 innings next season. He’s only surpassed that mark twice in eight seasons, which raises concerns about his contract. While Freeland has been effective at preventing runners from reaching base, he has struggled in other areas, evidenced by a combined 5.12 ERA over the last two seasons. He doesn’t generate strikeouts or weak contact, making this swap less appealing. However, if Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson can improve Freeland’s performance, this trade could turn out well.
